The Power of Generations: 7 Take-Aways

Neil Howe and William Strauss are authors, speakers and demographers whose writings reflect their belief that generations are among the most powerful forces in history. “A woman of 40 today has less in common with 40-year-old women across the ages than with the rest of her generation, which is united by memories, language, habits, and life lessons.” Howe and Strauss have written a number of books over the last two decades, including a series beginning in 2000 on the Millennial generation (see more below), and together operate LifeCourse Associates.

Their idea, encompassed in the mission of LifeCourse, is to employ a “visionary blend of social science and history to interpret the qualitative nature of a generation’s collective personality, helping managers and marketers leverage quantitative data in new and remarkable ways—and to lend order, meaning, and predictability to national trends.”

I don’t mind saying that I love this stuff. Some of what comprises great strategy, in my view, is the ability to take mountains of seemingly disparate data and draw sensible patterns—patterns from which decisions can be made. In fact, if others have not been able to sense these same patterns, then the result can be true competitive advantage.

In the case of Howe and Strauss, their database spans 19 generations of Americans since the Mayflower. Their model, while not perfect, generates some fascinating conclusions. “What we have found is that generations shaped by similar early-life experiences often develop similar life trajectories. The patterns are strong enough to support a measure of predictability.”

There are six of the 19 generations alive in America today. Here are 7 related take-aways from Howe and Strauss’s July-August 2007 article in the Harvard Business Review:

1. The GI Generation (born 1901-1924, now age 83-106) enjoyed a “good kid” reputation and the sharpest rise in school achievement ever recorded. As young adults they were the first Miss Americas and All-American athletes. In midlife they created an “affluent society” of vaccines and moon rockets. No generation in the history of polling got along worse with their own children. The GI Generation held the American Presidency from 1961 to 1992 and gets credit for the New Frontier and Great Society, but blame for Vietnam and Watergate. They were the first to be called “senior citizens” and have been honored this century with memorials, firms and books. About half of those still alive are in dependent care.

This generation, in Howe and Stauss’s nomenclature, is a “Hero” archetype similar to the 1742-1766 generation of Thomas Jefferson and Molly Pitcher that took the country through the Revolution. These various archetypes are critical to leveraging the predictability of the generational model.

2. The Silent Generation (born 1925-1942, now age 65-82) grew up as the seen-but-not-heard Little Rascals and Shirley Temples of the Great Depression and World War II. This generation was too young to be war heroes and too old to be free spirits, instead becoming risk-averse technicians who were married early and intent on climbing the career ladder. Until, of course, the 1960s, when everything changed, and they started looking forward instead of backward, becoming America’s leading civil-rights activists, rock and rollers, antiwar leaders, feminists, and public-interest lawyers. To date, they are the first generation never to elect a U.S. President or a chief justice to the Supreme Court. They are set for retirement, with pensions, retiree health care, golden parachutes, unprecendented affluence and a hip lifestyle.

The Silent Generation has an “Artist” archetype, similar to the 1843-1859 Progressive Generation of Woodrow Wilson and Mary Cassatt.

3. The Boom Generation (born 1943-1960, now age 47-64) began as feed-on-demand Dr. Spock babies. They were the indulged product of postwar optimism who loudly proclaimed scorn for their parents’ emphasis on institutions, civic participation and team playing. As they grew, crime rates, substance abuse and sexual risk-taking all surged while academic achievement and SAT scores fell. By the 1970s Boomer women were challenging the glass ceiling. In the 1980s many Boomers became yuppie individualists in an era of deregulation, tax cuts and entrepreneurship. As parents they have developed close relationships with their children, to the point of hovering. From the very beginning, this generation has suffered declining economic prosperity.

The Boom Generation is a “Prophet” generation in Howe and Strauss’s parlance, similar to the 1860-1882 Missionary Generation of FDR and Emma Goldman.

4. Generation X (born 1961-1981, now age 26-46) grew up in an era of failing schools and marriages, when the welfare of children sank to the bottom of the nation’s priorities. They learned to distrust institutions, including the family. Many endured latchkey childhoods and the first of R-rated popular culture. By the mid-80s they showed a surging interest in business and military careers. Crime and teen pregnancy soared. AIDS and blighted courtship rituals meant cautious dating and late marriages. Many have tried to construct the strong childhoods they missed growing up. 3-in-5 Gen Xers say they someday want to be their own boss, and many prefer free agency over corporate loyalty. They are already the greatest entrepreneurial generation in U.S. history; their tech-savvy and marketplace resilience have helped America prosper in the era of globalization. Gen X includes the largest share of immigrants of any American generation in the twentieth century. They have barely made an impression on civic life.

Generation X reflects the “Nomad” archetype of the 1822-1842 Gilded Generation of Ulysses S. Grant and Louisa May Alcott.

5. The Millennial Generation (born 1982 to roughly 2005, now age 25 or younger) arrived as “Babies on Board” to lower abortion and divorce rates and a recasting of babies as special, including a pronounced return to defining adult issues in terms of their effects on children. Hollywood, which had shown Generation X as “home alone,” saw the Millennials as adorable children who inspired adults to become better people. As they move to the workplace, a record number are attracted to large institutions and government agencies seeking teamwork and a solid work-life balance. They seek close relationships in their young adult lives that mirror those created by their family.

The Millennial archetype may be “Hero,” much like the GI Generation, the oldest still alive in America.

6. The Homeland Generation (born roughly 2005-2025) will have both Gen X parents, who appear to be highly protective and nurturing, and Millennial parents. Their first birth year will become clear in time.

If Howe and Strauss’s model holds, the Homeland and 1925-1942 Silent generations will share much in common.

7. A few notes on what’s next:

• Boomers are constructing a new social ethic of decline and death, much as they did with sex and procreation in their youth. They will glorify self-denial while personally maintaining their creature-comfort indulgences. They will take pride in continuing to dominate American culture, religion and values, even as they age. Boomers will avoid large-scale preplanned communities and keep their families around them. They will find that they have not saved as much as needed, and many will pursue new careers late in life. Boomers will seem eccentric and sometimes hypocritical to younger generations.

• Gen X will retain their reputation for alienation and disaffection as they enter their 50s. They will tend to define themselves as “not-Boomers” and “not-Millennials,” not their own generation. They will begin to seek greater security in family and job. They will seek products and services that are individualized, causing Boomers to long wistfully for a time when products and jobs came in standard shapes and sizes. They will continue to drive remarkable productivity gains, though many will decide when they retire that they never had a “career.” Also, many will be more disappointed than Boomers by their financial security in retirement.

• Many Millennials will want to correct for the impracticality of Boomers and the indiscipline of Gen X. Every arena will become more mannerly, structured and civic-minded. Millennials will remain much closer to their parents then the two prior generations. Their pop culture will be bland, mainstream and friendly. The issues of economic class and privilege—due to large student loans, high housing prices, and the globalizing labor market—will displace partially concerns about gender, race and ethnicity. Millennials will be more confident, trusting and teachable in the workplace, but be seen as pampered, risk averse and dependent. (Some employers are already complaining about their constant need for feedback and their lack of basic job skills, like punctuality and dress.)

Even if not perfect, this is a pretty impressive model. The authors paint rich pictures of each generation and the paths they are likely to take as they age. And, speaking as a Baby Boomer, it is comforting to know that at least some of us will still be around in the 2060s. (Though, honestly that doesn’t seem as far away as it should, I’m afraid.)

In closing, Howe and Strauss tell us, “Today, as ever, forecasters make the faulty assumption that the future will be a straight-line extrapolation from the recent past. They predict that the next set of people in each phase of life will behave like a more extreme version of the current set. In truth, social change is nonlinear—but it is not chaotic.”

Posted by Entrepreneur Generations

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