Living by the Numbers

About a year ago I wrote about my best friend, Dave, who died of cancer in 2003.  Dave was a senior executive at Orbital Sciences and Spacehab, and it’s safe to say that the worst bet he ever made was to believe that “space” would be a growth industry in the last two decades of the twentieth century.  At some point in its history, NASA managed to lose its funding under one administration, driving out many of the A and B-players.  Then when the funding reappeared under some other administration, all the C-players were there to spend it.

At least that’s the way it has been described to me, and certainly the way the agency seemed to be run as I observed Dave from afar.  I hope things have changed now.

The reason I mention Dave is that I was laughing about his theory of dating the other day, the one I described here.  You know, the theory where a guy who is really a “5” thinks he’s a “6” and wants to date “7s” and “8s,” all of which leads to great misery in the dating world.  

This idea that we (and I mean guys in particular) all think we’re better looking than we really are was expressed sublimely by David Ogilvy in my recent post on his management style when he said, “No man should be allowed to pick his own photo.” (“I really don’t take good pictures” means “I have to be more handsome than that, don’t I?”)

For the last few months, I’ve had my eye out for other simple number theories that help organize our time and our lives.  I know I’m still missing some brilliant ones, but below, I capture a few:

A New Golden Rule for PowerPoint Fonts 

We all have read Guy Kawasaki’s 10/20/30 Rule of PowerPoint, and probably ten times that number of articles telling us how or why it doesn’t work.  (I’m thinking as well of Tom Friedman’s Introduction in the updated edition of The World is Flat, in which he notes that “This book has triggered a cottage industry of articles with variations on the title “The World is Not Flat.”)

Here’s a new, simple “golden rule” of PowerPoint fonts when all else fails: Always use a font size at least as large as half the age of the oldest person in the room. 

If you are pitching the 70-year old Chairman, go no smaller than a 36-font.  If you are charming a 45-year old CEO, insist on 24-font.  And so on. 

At this point in my career I’d need a 26-font, which is dangerous because one can still make an awfully dense slide.  Maybe the new, golden rule needs to insist on at least one picture per slide as well.

100 Days is the Right Time for Assessing Performance 

Ask President Obama.  Cheesh.  It’s been hard in the last week to read anything but his one-hundred day assessment.  (Thanks, FDR.)  It makes you almost appreciate swine flu.

Better yet, think about all of your personal progress in the last hundred days.  That’s a little sobering, no?  It’s a good thing they’re not writing about us on the front page of the New York Times.

90% of Everything is Crap 

Is there a less elegant, more powerful rule of life? 

Let me demonstrate.  Of the 100 days you just assessed, there were about 10 of real quality, I’m betting.  (Unless your vacation week fell in there, of course.)

Let’s say you live near 100 restaurants.  My guess is there are going to be ten really good ones and a bunch of me-toos and abominations.  Of the ten good ones, there are going to be 20 meal choices at each, of which two will be superb.  That’s 20 restaurant meals near your house worth eating, or about two dates with your significant other every month.  (You can bet on at least 26 to round out the year, of course, since yours and your s.o.’s tastes won’t match completely.  But we’re close here.)

You can also live in NYC or SF or Paris and significantly improve your odds.

The other way to state this rule, of course, is that 10% of almost everything is worthwhile.  So part of your life’s work becomes finding and enjoying that 10%, while scrupulously avoiding the rest.

By the way, there are something over 100 million blogs being produced daily.  That’s 10 million of quality.  So there’s hope.

Men Should Not Date Women Younger Than Half Their Age Plus Seven 

Mel Gibson is 53 and his new girlfriend 39, easily in range.  But John Henry, owner of the Red Sox, is 59 and his fiancée 30.  That’s seven years below the rule.  Maybe Henry’s $800M net worth allows him to bend things slightly.  That would certainly be consistent with Dave's numbers-dating system.

Incidentally, any ten-year-old boys reading this: Do the math.

If You Know Twelve Things About Something, You’re An Expert 

 This is Scott Adams’ (of Dilbert fame) theory, and I like it.  He says:

I call it the Rule of Twelve, and it states that if you know twelve concepts about a given topic you will look like an expert to people who only know two or three. If you learn more than twelve concepts about a topic, the value of each additional one drops off considerably.

Allow me to be the first to confess that twelve is not a magic and inviolable number. It just sounds better than The Rule of Several, Give or Take Two or Three, With Lots of Exceptions. So don't get hung up on the number twelve.

The power of this rule is that seemingly impenetrable topics are less intimidating if you know there are only a dozen concepts to learn. And often the details of a subject are unimportant if you know the big concepts. Let me give you an example

You can try this on anyone. 

I once co-wrote a book about King Philip’ War.  Watch me impress you:

1. King Philip’s War was fought in 1675 and 1676 in New England.
2. Nearly a dozen towns were destroyed, including Providence, R.I.
3. King Philip’s real name was Metacom, the son of Massasoit.

Don’t I sound pretty damn smart?  And I’m only at #3.

It reminds me of the story about McGeorge Bundy, one of President Kennedy’s whiz kids as described in David Halberstam’s brilliant The Best and the Brightest.  I read the book a long, long time ago, but I remember Bundy at Yale having to read to the class a written report he’d completed.  He stood with his notes, proceeded to talk for ten minutes in a beautiful oration, and then sat down.  One of his classmates looked over at Bundy’s notes afterwards and realized the pages were blank.

I’m betting, per Adams’ theory, that Bundy knew 12 things about his topic.  That, and his 190 IQ were all he needed that day.

If You Can Make Your Serve and Hit Two Returns, You Can Beat Almost Any Club Tennis Player on Earth

I believe this, but cannot prove it.

One Half of All Species on Earth will be Extinct in 100 Years 

Yikes.  At least one bona fide scientist believes this.  In fact, it’s estimated that 99% of all species that ever existed are now extinct.

I offer this as parting motivation to make the next 100 days count, inevitably by finding the 10% of all stuff that really rocks.

Posted by Entrepreneur Generations

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