Questions about Baltimore Mayoral Race - Entrepreneur Generations

At our happy hour the other day, a friend -- a teacher who I respect who teaches at a different school, so I rarely see her, but value her insight on politics, both local and national -- asked me a tough question: who are your top-4 candidates for mayor?

This question was probably more difficult than any question about any election I've probably ever experienced. Baltimore is at a precipice, and this election is very important, but I still have no idea who to vote for. Honestly, everyone except Dixon and fringe candidates could be in my Top-4 at any given moment.

Right now, my "Top 4" for the Democratic Primary would probably be Embry, Mosby, McKessen, and unsure.

Overall, a race that I thought would be pretty exciting has turned out to be fairly boring. The city's voters seem gravitating to two names that I've heard over and over again in my 15 years living in Baltimore, and neither seems the right shift forward for a city badly in need of a fresh start. I'm left pondering several questions about the race:

1. What if Brandon Scott had gotten into the race? 
Almost everyone I know likes Brandon Scott, because he gets things done. He is super visible, strong on constituent services, focused and passionate about crime and education, and huge on social media. If they did favorability and recognition polls for City Councilmen, I think his would be very high. Looking at the race, both Mosby and Scott -- youthful councilmen with visibility -- had a similar pedigree to run for mayor, Scott has a couple of advantages that Mosby doesn't have: first, Brandon Scott doesn't have the distraction of his wife as state's attorney, creating what some see as a dynastic reign on the city that many don't want. Secondly, Scott's time in City Council is distinguished, with many impressive accomplishments. I admittedly don't live near Mosby's district (unlike Scott's), but I've heard enough criticism and seen enough vacant buildings that the feeling that his tenure in city council was less than distinguished is hard to ignore. He also never mentions it in his speeches, probably because he's so focused on being the candidate of the future (but you still have to discuss what you've done while on the council).

What would have happened if Scott had gotten into the race? Would he have disappeared like Mosby largely has, polling below 5%? Or could he have broken through to the older voters that seem to be favoring the leaders who have been around for decades, 66-year old Pugh and 62-year old Dixon?

It's hard to tell, but I would know who to vote for if Brandon Scott were in the race.

2. What if DeRay McKessen had gotten into the race a year earlier?
I think DeRay is an impressive candidate with great ideas, and thought his entrance into the race would spark some excitement in what has been a pretty dull race thus far. It didn't. He's barely registering in the polls. After watching John Waters' engaging endorsement of DeRay, I'm feeling a little sad about what might have been. DeRay should be doing well; his plans are as thorough and reasonable as anyone's; he's shown himself to be a strong organizer of people; he could bring some national attention to our city. But his somewhat theatrical, last-minute entrance into the race smacks of a lack of seriousness, and it feels like too little, too late. I wish he was creating huge interest in the race, but instead the race is still a race between two old vanguards.

3. Where is Wes Moore? 
For years, I anticipated that Wes Moore -- a man I very much admire and respect -- might run for mayor in 2016, and, up until the Book Festival, when his mom (who we had sat behind at his talk) told us he decided not to run, I held onto that hope. If he were running, I am pretty sure he would be dominating the election; he's be that uniter candidate (and, I've heard, David Warnock would not have been in the race). But, since he's not running, I am wondering what, if any, role he might have in endorsing a candidate or in government at all with a new mayoral regime. Perhaps he's biding his time for four years, doing his thing with his BridgeEdu organization, while Baltimore elects another same-old to the mayoral seat. But I'm somewhat surprised he's been absent from the news cycle at all.

4. Why doesn't David Warnock show up to forums, or leave crazy early? 
This drives me crazy, and has made me decide not to vote for him (despite earlier support of him), unless something changes. As a campaign strategy, it just doesn't make sense to me: these are engaged and active voters who come to these forums, and I would wager that most voters are only able to attend 1 or 2. Why miss out on those opportunities? Dixon also is missing many of them, but she was never on my list.

5. Will Elijah Cummings endorse? 
Mr. Cummings is as establishment as the Democratic party gets, and I'm pretty sure he would probably endorse Pugh, but I still think his endorsement would have weight, more than anyone else's Would a Cummings endorsement of, say, Mosby, sway the election at all? I think it would.

6. What role will race play in the election? 
Out of the 13 Democratic candidates, only 2 are white: Elizabeth Embry and David Warnock. If one of them were not in the race, would the results be different? White people are not monolithic, and I've not seen polls divided by race, but I've noticed a lot of them like Embry or Warnock. Heck, my white self has liked both of them at different points in the election cycle (and, as of now, Embry is one of my top picks, she's been awesome as far as I'm concerned).

7. Can Sheila Dixon win over any new voters? 
I think no. I think her support has topped out, but she could still win because of the number of candidates. If she were one-on-one with any of the candidates, though, she would likely lose.

8. What has happened to Jill Carter? 
I proudly voted in the last mayoral election for Jill Carter, but have been disappointed with her this election cycle. Today, she tweeted that a vote for anyone other than Pugh is a vote for Dixon. Sorry, but that's such baloney, and I'm disappointed that a candidate that I went on a limb for last election cycle would say that voting for a non-establishment candidate is throwing your vote away. I wanted her to run this election, but am no longer interested in a candidate who is that dismissive of people's desire to vote for whom their heart says.

9. Can Joshua Harris and the Green Party mount a formidable run against the Democratic candidate in the fall? 
If the nominee is Dixon or Pugh, as it is likely to be, I'm going to campaign hard for Joshua Harris in the fall. Will it be enough? Is there any chance? The numbers so far this primary season say it might be impossible; voters go back to the tried and true in this city. But I sure will try.

10. Why hasn't Carl Stokes' message had more traction?
Stokes is often the wittiest and angriest at the forums, and many of his ideas really ring true. I do wonder, for example, how things would have been different if he had been elected in 1999 instead of Martin O'Malley; he makes the case that things would have been a lot better. Like Pugh, he is trying to parlay the you-should-have-voted-for-me-before into some traction, but he's doing it a lot more explicitly than Pugh, and a lot more negatively. And I guess that's why his candidacy has lost traction as it has gone on, but it's still interesting to me, after the unrest in April: the anger we saw then isn't turning into votes for an (rightfully, probably) angry candidate.

from Epiphany in Baltimore http://ift.tt/1RLuTQe Questions about Baltimore Mayoral Race - Entrepreneur Generations

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