USDA releases parts of long-term agricultural projection report - Entrepreneur Generations

Yesterday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released selected parts of its projections of production, consumption, and prices for major U.S. crops and livestock from 2018 through 2027. The USDA stressed in a press release that the figures are not forecasts, but a "conditional long-run scenario" that assumes normal weather and yields with no change in U.S. farm policy. The complete report will be released in February 2018.

Some quick highlights from the report:

• Overall acres of corn planted are projected to fall from 94 million acres in 2016-2017 to 87.5 million acres planted in 2027-2028. But the yield and price per bushel is expected to rise from 174.6 bushels per acre at $3.36 each in 2016-2017 to 191.5 bushels per acre for $3.60 each in 2027-2028. Net returns are projected to rise from $253 per acre in 2016-2017 to $320 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Planted acres for wheat are expected to fall from 50.1 million acres in 2016-2017 to 48 million acres in 2027-2028, with decreasing yields as well: from 52.7 bushels per acre in 2016-2017 to 50.9 bushels per acre in 2027-2028. The price for wheat is predicted to rise from $3.89 per bushel in 2016-2017 to $5.20 per bushel in 2027-2028. Net returns are projected to rise from $89 per acre in 2016-2017 to $132 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Rice follows much the same pattern as corn: planted acres could fall from 3.1 million acres in 2016-2017 to 2.9 million acres in 2027-2028. But rice yields are projected to rise from 7,237 pounds per acre in 2016-2017 to 7,996 pounds per acre in 2027-2028, with average price per hundredweight rising from $10.40 in 2016-2017 to $13.10 in 2027-2028. Net returns are projected to rise from $186 per acre in 2016-2017 to $408 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Barley may become a less-profitable crop, with projected net returns falling from $216 per acre in 2016-2017 to $210 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Sorghum may also become a less-profitable crop, with projected net returns falling from $82 per acre in 2016-2017 to $79 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Planted acres of soybeans are projected to increase from 83.4 million acres in 2016-2017 to 91.5 million acres in 2027-2028. Net returns may increase from $320 per acre in 2016-2017 to $326 per acre in 2027-2028.
• Overall acres of upland cotton are projected to rise from 9.9 million acres planted in 2016-2017 to 11.4 million acres in 2027-2028, while the yield may rise from 855 pounds per acre in 2016-2017 to 899 pounds per acre in 2027-2028. The price per pound is projected to rise from $0.68 in 2016-2017 to $0.72 in 2027-2028. Net return per acre is projected to rise from $180 in 2016-2017 to $206 in 2027-2028.
• Sugar projections were made for both sugarbeets and sugarcane. Sugarbeet planted acres may decrease from 1.16 million acres in 2016-2017 to 1.09 million acres in 2027-2028, with a slightly increasing yield per acre during that time frame. Sugarcane planted acres may increase from 853,000 acres in 2016-2017 to 916,000 acres in 2027-2028.
• Total meat consumption is projected to rise from 214.6 pounds per capita in 2016 to 221.5 pounds per capita in 2027. Within that total, red meat consumption is expected to rise slightly more than poultry consumption. 
• Total dairy cows are projected to rise from 9.3 million in 2016 to 9.5 million in 2027, with pounds of milk produced per cow expected to rise from 22,775 pounds in 2016 to 26,205 pounds in 2027.

from The Rural Blog http://ift.tt/2j15CdK USDA releases parts of long-term agricultural projection report - Entrepreneur Generations

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