Pro-rural bias of the Constitution stands in the way of Trump's impeachment, could hurt Dems' down-ticket races - Entrepreneur Generations

Estimated net support for impeachment
(The Economist chart; click to enlarge)

The pro-rural bias of our Constitution helped elect President Trump, and now it's insulating him and his party from calls for impeachment, The Economist reports.

Trump won the election despite losing the popular vote by 3 million because of the electoral college, which has a slight rural bias. But, "whereas the electoral college is only mildly anti-majoritarian, the Senate often deviates wildly from the popular will. Because each state is weighted equally, voters in less-populous states are over-represented relative to those in large ones," The Economist reports. "Now that Republicans derive an outsize portion of their support from rural voters, their share of senators exceeds their share of total votes cast in Senate elections."

The Economist notes that the Senate would still not likely have the two-thirds majority needed to convict Trump even if it were apportioned by population like the House of Representatives; "however, if the chamber reflected public opinion more closely, some Republican members seeking re-election might feel obliged to support his removal."

As the system stands now, Senate Republicans are likely to benefit from backing Trump, The Economist writes. Researchers from the publication base that opinion on a tricky bit of statistical estimation, which you can read about in the article (along with plenty of great charts). But the bottom line is this: 55% of voters with an opinion disapprove of Trump, but only 52% of voters with an opinion support impeachment. And in 29 of the 50 states, a plurality of voters oppose impeachment. The lack of a clear majority opinion, overall, means Republican senators have little reason to oppose impeachment.

Meanwhile, widespread Democratic support of impeachment may endanger hard-won down-ticket seats, like that of Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, The Economist writes.

from The Rural Blog https://ift.tt/2LS6Ne5 Pro-rural bias of the Constitution stands in the way of Trump's impeachment, could hurt Dems' down-ticket races - Entrepreneur Generations

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