Population, and therefore political power, is shifting to the South and Southwest; trend may continue - Entrepreneur Generations

Wall Street Journal chart based on Census data

Newly released Census Bureau data shows that populations are continuing to shift from the North and Midwest to the South and Southwest; since a higher population means more seats in the House of Representatives, that could increase political clout in such areas, Janet Adamy and Paul Overberg report for The Wall Street Journal.

The data contains state population estimates for 2019 as of July 1, 2019. Since the decenniel census comes only months afterward, the newly released data is a decent predictor of which states will gain and lose Congressional seats and electoral vote based on the 2020 count, Adamy and Overberg report.

"Based on Monday’s figures, Texas is poised to gain two congressional seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are each expected to gain one," Adamy and Overberg report. "Eight states are likely to lose one seat: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California. It would be California’s first such loss since it became a state in 1850."

The shift could benefit the Republican party, since the losses come mainly from Democrat-majority and swing states and the gains mostly go to Republican or swing states, according to Kimball Brace, president of the bipartisan political consulting firm Election Data Services. "Democrats have said in Texas and Arizona, the growth of the Latino populations and new residents from other states could eventually turn them blue. Democrats noted how population movements in recent years have moved the partisan makeup of some states in their favor, including Virginia and Colorado," Adamy and Overberg report.

The power shift will also depend on which party controls each state's legislature after the 2020 elections, since they help redraw districts and legislative maps, Adamy and Overberg report. Political power also depends on whether voters are moving to urban areas, which tend to be more liberal, or rural areas, which tend to be more conservative. The newly released data doesn't break down where people moved within states.

from The Rural Blog https://ift.tt/2SXfR5N Population, and therefore political power, is shifting to the South and Southwest; trend may continue - Entrepreneur Generations

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