Trump tells farmers more trade aid coming soon - Entrepreneur Generations

On Sunday President Trump spoke at the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual convention, promising farmers that they will soon get a final round of $3.6 billion in trade bailout aid, though trade deals have been signed meant to spur ag export sales. He noted that farm income increased from 2018 to 2019, greatly aided by federal payments, and predicted that "the big stuff is yet to come," Chuck Abbott reports for Successful Farming.

"So far, producers have received $10.8 billion to offset the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on 2019 crops and livestock, on top of $8.6 billion in cash for 2018 production," Abbott reports. "A decision whether to release the final tranche of $3.6 billion, depending on market conditions and the state of trade negotiation, was due this month." Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said Monday that there will be 

The Agriculture Department's recent Farm Income Forecast projected that net farm income increased 2.8 percent over 2019, and that net cash farm income increased 15% in the same time period. Direct government payments, mostly from trade bailout, accounted for almost a quarter of all farm income, the largest share in over a decade, and a high-interest alternative lender was the single largest beneficiary of those payments.

Farmers are an important demographic for Trump, and one he wants to keep happy. "Farmers, who are often social and fiscal conservatives, voted for Trump in landslide numbers in 2016. Trump remains highly popular in farm country, partly because of tax cuts, regulatory relief, and support for corn ethanol," Abbott reports. "In a 2019 study by the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, farmers in three Midwestern states said the trade war hit them in pocketbook but they agreed with Trump that it was important to end predatory trade practices by China – seeing it as short-term pain for long-term gain. Most of them said the trade-war payments were helpful."

Though the Trump said that the Phase I deal with China and the soon-to-be-signed USCMA deal with Canada and Mexico will "massively boost exports," some trade analysts are skeptical that U.S. exports can be rebuilt quickly enough to hit the $40-$50 billion a year level required by the China deal. "The National Farmers Union, the second-largest farm group, said the trade war 'bruised our (U.S.) reputation, making other trading partners reluctant to work with us,'" Abbott reports. "The U.S. International Trade Commission has estimated that trade with Canada and Mexico will grow by 1% under USMCA."

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