When I was in high school I ran the two-mile in spring track. What I remember best about the track season was not the meets themselves, but the practices. One kind of practice in particular we called “ladder day,” and we dreaded it more than all of the others.On ladder day the half-milers, milers and two-milers would all practice together. We’d start the misery by sprinting a hundred yards. Quick rest, and then a 220. Rest, and the then a quarter-mile, a half-mile, a mile and a two-mile. All for time, coaching screaming, right up the ladder.
But it didn’t end there, because we’d have to come back down the ladder and run a mile, half-mile, quarter-mile, and 220, finishing with a hundred-yard sprint.
Then we’d go into the shower and try not to drown because we couldn’t move our legs or lift our arms over our heads.
The funny thing was, of course, that the backside of the ladder always seemed easier, even though we were exhausted. There was something about getting over that two-mile hump that, psychologically, made the practice manageable.
That’s the image I carry in my head when I read about yet another technology that has “climbed the ladder,” adding increasingly sophisticated bells and whistles and becoming as complex as its top “super-users” can manage. Then, someone, somewhere, will offer a simpler model—less sometimes being more--and a whole new class of users will embrace it. Sometimes the new class of users is even larger than the old class.
We blogged about this happening with phones. (See here.)
Clayton Christensen signaled this so-called backside of the technology ladder as a CEO’s worst nightmare in the Innovator’s Dilemma. (See here.)
Now it’s happening with bicycles. Ross Kerber in this morning’s Boston Globe, writing from Interbike 2007, features a new generation of bikes that are simpler, cheaper and intended for the casual biker.
Why go after this crowd? Because there are 20 million serious bikers looking for technology, but there are 160 million other Americans who know how to ride, generally enjoyed riding, but quit years ago. Top companies are concerned that the doping scandal in professional biking will take a bite out of high-end sales. Meanwhile, the Americans who used to bike but do no longer are getting older and looking for “knitting” or healing exercises (like swimming and biking), are worried about the environment and global warming and looking for alternatives to their autos, and—I hate to say this, but you know who you are—do NOT look good in tight spandex. Hence: the cheap (well under $1000), casual bike is making a comeback.
These bikes use “coasting parts,” which include automatic shifting and an old-style brake—which means (for folks under 30), stepping back on one of the pedals. There are three manufacturers offering such a bike this year, and there will be 10 next year.
“The psychology has changed with cycling. It used to be for people who were poor or some weirdo in Birkenstocks,” says a vice president at Taiwan’s Dahon Inc.
It would seem an interesting exercise, after all of these years of seeking the “next big technology thing,” to spend some time brainstorming “simplicity” around your product or service. (I, for one, used to love Quicken but find each new round of additions unnecessary and annoying.) The question is: Can you make money on the backside of the ladder? Is there a large group waiting, even desperate, for you to do this?
Bikes can, and most likely will. It’s a model worth exploring.
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